This TFA blog – Caught in the Crossfire: How the Iran Conflict is Squeezing Tenant Farmers – is based on a piece, written by Lynette Steel, TFA Farm Policy Adviser, for The Farmers Guardian, published online and in mag on 22 May 2026.
The conflict involving Iran and the continuing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is placing growing pressure on domestic agriculture, with serious concerns mounting about the long-term impact on farm profitability, food production and ultimately national food security. For tenant farmers in particular, who were already navigating stubbornly high rent levels and the threat of losing land to renewable energy projects, the timing could hardly be worse.
Although the UK imports relatively little food directly from the Gulf region, the strait is one of the world’s most important trade routes for oil, gas and fertiliser. Around 20% of the world’s oil and a significant proportion of global fertiliser supplies pass through this narrow channel each day.
For British farmers, the most immediate effect has been a sharp rise in input costs. Red diesel prices have risen significantly since the conflict escalated, while fertiliser costs have surged as production in key exporting nations has been severely disrupted. It is estimated that on-farm costs have increased by an average of 50% since the start of the conflict, representing a direct and immediate hit to cash flow. With no certainty that these rises will be passed on through higher food prices, it will be farmers themselves who are expected to absorb the difference.
These increases are particularly damaging for arable farms growing wheat, barley and oilseed rape, all of which depend heavily on fertiliser to maintain yields. Livestock and dairy farmers are also under pressure because higher fuel and feed costs push up the cost of production across the board. For glasshouse horticulture businesses, rising heating and gas bills make domestic fruit and vegetable production increasingly difficult to sustain.
The outlook for 2027 and beyond is deeply concerning. There are credible indications that fertiliser production has been effectively halted in a number of key producing countries. When supplies do resume, scarcity is expected to be a real problem, and the UK, as a comparatively small market, is unlikely to be prioritised over larger importers. If the disruption continues, many will be forced to reduce fertiliser use or shift to less input-intensive cropping, a short-term response that risks feeding through into reduced yields and lower overall food output across the next one or two harvests.
There are also wider economic implications. Industry groups have warned that food prices are likely to continue rising as higher energy and fertiliser costs work their way through the supply chain, placing additional pressure on consumers already facing a difficult cost of living environment.
For tenant farmers, the picture is further complicated by pressures that predate the current crisis. Rent levels have remained persistently high despite worsening margins, leaving little financial buffer to absorb the kind of cost shocks now being felt across the sector. Against this backdrop, the prospect of further large-scale renewable energy development on agricultural land adds another layer of uncertainty. This is one that goes to the very heart of what it means to farm as a tenant.
The Tenant Farmers Association has not held back in setting out what is at stake. In a statement released on 12 May 2026, TFA National Chair, Robert Martin said:
“Rising input costs are already squeezing tenant farmers hard and with rent levels not falling in line, margins are tighter than ever. It is our horticultural tenant farmers who face the sharpest end of this challenge. Their reliance on glasshouses and greenhouses makes them uniquely exposed and yet their energy demands are often seasonal rather than year-round, something a blanket approach to standing charges would simply fail to recognise.
Large scale renewable energy projects, particularly solar, are already hugely divisive and have hidden issues for the tenanted sector of agriculture with land earmarked for solar being ripped out of farm tenancies for little compensation in comparison to the real loss being experienced by those farming businesses. This is despite the Prime Minister giving a pre-general election promise to tenant farmers that this would not happen. Clearly it is easy to promise in Opposition what you don’t deliver in Government. The Government has already rejected amendments that would have protected tenant farmers within its Planning and Infrastructure Act and we will be looking hard to see what safeguards are provided for tenant farmers.
The Tenant Farmers Association will be watching developments closely and stand ready to engage with Government to ensure the tenant farming voice is part of that conversation.”
Ultimately, the Iran conflict has brought into sharp relief just how exposed British agriculture is to global geopolitical events. It has laid bare the dependence of modern farming on imported energy and fertiliser and, it has done so at a moment when tenant farmers are already being squeezed from multiple directions. Greater domestic resilience, investment in sustainable fertiliser alternatives and a more thoughtful approach to land use will all be needed. But so too will a genuine commitment from Government that those producing Britain’s food are not simply left to carry costs and consequences that are entirely beyond their control.
Related Articles
TFA Blog #357 – Farming Roadmap 2050: Clarity at Last, Delivery Must Follow
TFA News article – DEFRA Looks Long-term for Farming and Land Use in England (April March 2026)
Farm Profitability Review by Baroness Batters
The Rock Review (Published 13 Oct 22): Working Together for a Thriving Agricultural Tenanted Sector
TFA Blog #284 – Producing Solar Energy Whilst Protecting Tenant Farmers
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